Poland is set to increase its gambling winnings tax to 15 per cent in 2026 as part of a broad fiscal strategy. This should be a profit target considering the rapid growth of this industry. Government data indicate that legal gambling turnover in Poland exceeded 15 billion in 2023. This article will outline the parameters of the policy that led to this outcome, as well as the expected outcomes, in the context of the overall economic environment and potential for future growth.
In the last decade, Poland’s gambling industry has undergone a revolution. There has been an unprecedented growth in the accessibility of online gambling over the internet, as well as the growth of internet digital casino gambling products. Given that participation in gambling has increased, the government will be considering the positive impacts of gambling on the public finances.
This is now evident through the proposal to increase the gambling winnings tax to 15 per cent, which is due to be implemented in 2026. The apparent simplicity of this proposal, as with other legislation, is not to increase the tax winning payouts substantially. This requires an examination of public revenue, the gambling industry and the overall country’s fiscal policy.
Government Targets Higher Revenue From Gambling Sector
Officials consider the planned tax increase to be a reasonable measure to cash in on the gambling boom. As per the Polish Ministry of Finance, gambling revenues exceeded $1.6 billion in 2024, a growth of 20% vs. 2021. Consumer spending shifted over the same period, primarily due to inflation, bolstering the argument for targeted measures.
Market analysts say new online gambling sites lowered barriers, attracting a fresh audience with small stake bets and bonuses. As Erik King from BonusBezDepozytu.org points out, many licensed sites market to customers with free spins as a means of sampling the entertainment before wagering real money. Such programs have broadened the market at little cost to players. Such spending, by other means, remains a lost tax opportunity.
New Tax Rate Expected to Take Effect in 2026
Fifteen per cent winnings tax will be effective in January 2026, with the assumption of parliamentary approval on schedule from the Ministry of Finance. Lawmakers say that having the date set in the future means that both operators and regulators will be geared to facilitate the required operational changes in the functions of the platforms in the new payout systems that will be given to custom changes in the rules.
Poland has a composition of gambling taxes over gambling activities that is an over-gambling turnover tax in income taxation on certain gambling winnings over sports betting. The suggested change is geared towards the unification of taxation on the products.
Consideration is given to a 2025 study of the Polish Economic Institute that states that the tax simplification will lead to a decrease in the costs of supervisory bodies by almost 10%. The same study indicated that without a steep decline in the legal gambling participation of people in the first two years, the tax received annually will increase in a moderate way.
Impact on Players and Betting Operators
A decrease in winnings results from higher taxes, impacting players. Net wins decrease for more frequent players. Even if the total money in circulation stays the same, one big win becomes even less profitable if the shut-out or rake increases. Surveys from eGamersWorld 2025 indicate that casual players may absorb such changes likewise without much behavioral change, while more frequent players may respond more aggressively.
Bettors even respond in larger amounts to changes in the industry, or may even lose income if it leads to other changes and become less frequent players in other wagering markets. Stakeholders legally operating in the market, such as betting companies, on the other hand, try to adjust even more to stabilize their profit margin in the somewhat captured market, and hence try to bet on thin, volume markets, in services, such as wagering or betting or even in offering markets.
This pressure on margins in volume markets leads to higher-priced services or wagering on higher volumes on services that lead to more volume in total markets. Higher taxes may even lead to betting market markets saturating.
In Poland, the Ministry of Finance estimate the illegal betting operator market share to be about 10% of total gambling activity. Slacker enforcement in policing the gap created by unregulated taxation may lead players to be more exposed to predatory unlicensed operators.
Part of Broader Fiscal Reform Strategy
Poland anticipates greater healthcare, social services, and defense spending liabilities. Government budget 2025 documents explain that Poland is seeking stable revenue sources that do not increase broad-based income taxes. The gambling tax proposal fits with these fiscal targets. Eurostat data shows Poland’s tax-to-GDP ratio is lower than the European Union average. This gives regulators the leeway to increase and diversify taxes.
Discretionary spending taxes, such as gambling, tend to face lower resistance than taxes on wage-related essentials. Economists argue that such discretionary taxes are more effective than reforms directed at wages and essential goods, but their effectiveness depends on compliance and enforcement.
What the Policy Shift Signals Going Forward
The government and parliament are still free to provide more detailed explanations of how the tax will be differentiated across the gambling products. Public consultations with operators and consumer groups are expected before final adoption.
This is not a fundamental change in gambling policy, but the Reform indicates tighter Fiscal policy for the market as a whole. Poland’s capacity to balance higher revenue with market stability will become evident with the new rate expected in 2026.